The second the Boston Bruins traded the rights of Phil Kessel to Toronto for that passel of draft picks, the rumors began to fly that Peter Chiarelli would be going after Atlanta Thrashers superstar Ilya Kovalchuk. Those dreams from fans of the Black and Gold ramped up a little bit last week, when Kovalchuk scored a goal and an assist against the B’s (and was robbed at least once by the glove of Timothy Thomas, Jr.), mere days after Atlanta GM Don Waddell and Kovalchuk’s agent Jay Grossman “hit a snag” in negotiations.
The Bruins are in a position to make a trade seeming because they own two first round picks in the 2010 draft due to Brian Burke being a dumbass needing a scoring winger. They also have Toronto’s second round pick and ALSO have Tampa Bay’s second round pick due to the Lashoff/Karsums for Recchi trade last year. There’s some wankery down in the third and fourth rounds, but if any of those picks are involved it’ll be a throw-in and not the main part of the deal.
The first thing that needs to be considered is Kovalchuk’s cap hit. For the 2009-2010 season it’s $6.4 million. This would instantly make him the second-highest hit on the team behind only Zdeno Chara’s $7.5 million. According to NHLNumbers.com’s Bruins page the Bruins currently have $1.816 million in cap space, and if you have completed elementary school, you will realize $6.4 million is a larger number than $1.816 million. The Bruins would be required to shed a salary or three. The easiest math would be single salary for single salary. The Bruins salaries that are large enough to be traded away and then fit Kovalchuk under the cap are Bergeron, Chara, Savard and Thomas. I think it is safe to say that none of those players will be traded, so it would be multiple roster players leaving for Atlanta.
Now, roster players wouldn’t be enough. Even draft picks plus rosters players may not be enough. The Thrashers may also require a prospect. In fact, I personally believe the kind of deal Atlanta looks for would be something akin to what they got just two short years ago for Marian Hossa. In that deal, Pittsburgh gave up roster players Colby Armstrong and Erik Christensen, prospect Angelo Esposito and their 1st rounder in the 2008 draft. At the time Christensen has collected 18 goals in 61 games the year before and 9 in 49 that season and was seemingly going to bloom into a good young 20-goal scorer. Armstrong similarly had 16 goals in 47 games 2 years prior and while his totals dipped, he was a better defensive forward than Christensen with a similar potential to become a 20-goal scorer. Angelo Esposito was taken in the first round, 20th overall, in the 2007 draft and was in the midst of a season that saw him wind up scoring 30 goals and 39 assists in 56 games. If the Bruins were to seek out Kovalchuk, giving up any less than 2 roster players akin to young potential 20-goal scorers, a top prospect and a 1st round draft pick is impossible. The caveat is that Pascal Dupuis also went to Pittsburgh, and how much was his value in the trade? Dupuis and Hossa together probably do not equal the value of one Kovalchuk, so the 3 players and pick is still just a start.
One duo I personally have latched onto as a Bruins fan is the duo of Sturm ($3.5 million) and Ference ($1.4 million). Together their cap hit is $4.9 million, and if you add the $1.8 million the Bruins are currently under the cap, you come up with a nice figure of $6.7 million, which is $0.3 million more than Kovalchuk. This is appealing math. Ference may be a top-4 defenseman, but Claude Julien’s system is plug-and-play. Taking Ference out of the picture would allow either Matt Hunwick or Mark Stuart (in a healthy world, realizing Stuart’s broken sternum will keep him out another month or so) to play more significant minutes in the top-4 and would also allow Johnny Boychuk to dress every night. It should be noted Boychuk’s +5 in 12 games is second only to Chara’s +8 on the blue line and is, in fact, the only other positive +/- on the club’s defense. I personally feel this leaves Ference somewhat expendable, and he’s a pretty good defenseman, particularly at a $1.4 million cap hit. He is also a pending UFA. Sturm is the Bruins leading scorer, and I love the guy, but anything he brings to the table can be brought by Kovalchuk in much greater number. Sturm is a steady 20-goal scorer, he might squeeze out 25, but 30 is beyond his reach. He has one more year remaining on his contract. These two are more proven than the Christensen/Armstrong duo that was sent to Atlanta for Hossa, the only thing missing is the youth. Since Christensen ultimately bottomed out and Esposito didn’t pan out as a prospect, that might not be entirely unattractive to Waddell. Am I over-valuing these two because they’re on my team and I’ve followed them for years? Is it unrealistic to expect a trade to work with these two? Perhaps. But it could be a starting place.
For a prospect, the Bruins have a few interesting options as a club that has relied on organizational depth and their own young players in recent years. Mikko Lehtonen leads Providence with 11 goals and 16 assists in 34 games. Andy Wozniewski is second on the team, but a player with 79 career NHL games and 12 points who is past his 29th birthday hardly qualified as trade bait. He didn’t sign the B’s until September 8, and if Atlanta wanted him, they likely could’ve had him if they had made a move. Brad Marchand is another option in Providence, he of 8 goals and 7 assists in 16 games. Any other prospect might have to come from the big club in the person of Byron Bitz or Vladimir Sobotka, who have both looked good but have hardly been proven as an offensive presence at the NHL level thus far. The Bruins also have a couple juicy prospects still outside the system proper. Their last two first-round picks have been Jordon Caron, who is playing for Rimouski Oceanic of the QMJHL, and Joe Colborne, playing for the University of Denver Pioneers in the WCHA. Colborne has 6 goals and 8 assists in 17 games for Denver this season after 31 points in 40 games last season. Caron has missed time to injury but nonetheless has 9 goals and 11 assists in 20 games and total 137 points in 161 games in the three years prior. Caron is also representing Canada in the World Junior Championship tournament currently going on in Saskatoon. I personally would much rather give up one of our top prospects than one of our established young players. I have a bit of a soft spot for both the college game and the play I’ve seen thus far from Lehtonen, so my first offer would be Jordon Caron. Be prepared if the Bruins do go after Kovalchuk to need to throw in another good prospect in addition to a top stud. Brad Marchand, for instance?
This brings us back around to the reason people feel the Bruins can go after Kovalchuk: those draft picks we acquired from Toronto. As a fan in the stands and watching on TV, I would absolutely not trade Toronto’s first rounder. Watching the WJHC tournament on the NHL Network, Taylor Hall is a special player, and he’s not the only player at the top of the 2010 draft that could be organization-changing. I would give Atlanta our first rounder and also Toronto’s second rounder, which could be in the 31st-35th overall type range. Put all these pieces together, and we would get only Ilya Kovalchuk, and likely only for 4-5 months as the Bruins simply do not have the cap flexibility to sign him long-term. I think it’s worth it, particularly if we can get it done early. This trade has more impact for us if we can get it done mid-January rather than at the trade deadline. If withholding the second rounder would get Atlanta to pull the trigger quicker, that’s the route I’d try to take.
In summary:
To Boston: Ilya Kovalchuk
To Atlanta: Marco Sturm, Andrew Ference, rights to Jordon Caron, 1st Round Pick (BOS), 2nd Round Pick (TOR)
